Roesch-McNally, G, Chang, M, Dalton M, Lowe S, Luce C, May C, Morishima G, Mote P, Petersen A “Sascha”, York E. 2020. Beyond Climate Impacts: Knowledge Gaps and Process-Based Reflection on Preparing a Regional Chapter for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. Weather, Climate, and Society. American Meteorological Society, 12(3): 337–350.




Antolinez, J.A.A., Mendez, F., Anderson, D., Ruggiero, P., and G. Kaminsky, 2019. Predicting climate driven coastlines with an efficient simple multi-scale model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface Processes, 124 (6): 1596-1624.

Chegwidden OS, Nijssen B, Rupp DE, Arnold JR, Clark MP, Hamman JJ, Kao S-C, Mao Y, Mizukami N, Mote PW, Pan M, Pytlak E, Xiao M. 2019. How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. Earth’s Future, 7(6): 623–637.

Hawkins, L.R, D.E. Rupp, D.J. McNeall, S. Li, R.A. Betts, P.W. Mote, S.N. Sparrow, and D.C.H. Wallom. 2019. Parametric sensitivity of vegetation dynamics in the TRIFFID model and the associated uncertainty in projected climate change impacts on western US forests. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

Li, S., D.E. Rupp, L. Hawkins, P.W. Mote, D. McNeall, S.N. Sparrow, D.C.H. Wallom, R.A. Betts, and J.J. Wettstein. 2019. Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation. Geosci. Model Dev., 12: 3017-3043,

Mote, P.W., J. Abatzoglou, K.D. Dello, K. Hegewisch, and D.E. Rupp, 2019: Fourth Oregon Climate Assessment Report. Oregon Climate Change Research Institute.

Parker, K., Ruggiero, P., Serafin, K., and Hill, D., 2019. Emulation as an approach for rapid estuarine modeling, Coastal Engineering, 150: 79-93.

Serafin, K.A., P. Ruggiero, K. Parker, and D.F. Hill. 2019. What’s streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19: 1415–1431,

Serafin, K., Ruggiero, P., Barnard, P., and Stockdon, H., 2019. Linking large-scale changes of the future wave climate to local coastal hazards: The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels, Coastal Engineering, 150,


Anderson, D., Ruggiero, P., Antolinez, J.A.A., Mendez, F., and Allan, J., 2018. A climate index optimized for longshore sediment transport reveals interannual to multi-decadal littoral cell rotations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123.

Jaeger, W.K., A. Amos, D.P. Bigelow, H. Chang, D.R. Conklin, R. Haggerty, C. Langpap, K. Moore, P.W. Mote, A. Nolin, A.J. Plantinga, C. Schwartz, D. Tullos, and D.T. Turner, 2017. Scarcity Amid Abundance: Water, Climate Change, and the Policy Role of Regional System Models. PNAS, 114 (45); doi: 10.1073/pnas.1706847114.

Halofsky, J.E., K. Hoglund-Wyatt, K.D. Dello, D.L. Peterson, J. Stevenson. 2018. Assessing and adapting to climate change in the Blue Mountains, Oregon. Overview, biogeography, and climate. Climate Services 10:1-8.

Chisholm Hatfield, S., E. Marino, K. P. Whyte, K. Dello, and P. Mote, 2018: Indian Time: Time, Seasonality, and Culture in Traditional Ecological Knowledge of Climate Change. Ecol Process 7: 25. doi:10.1186/s13717-018-013

Houston, L., S. Capalbo, C. Seavert, M. Dalton, D. Bryla, R. Sagili. 2018. Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate. Climatic Change 146:159–171.

Li H. Erikson, Antonio Espejo, Patrick L. Barnard, Katherine A. Serafin , Christie Hegermiller, Andrea O’Neill, Peter Ruggiero, and Pat Limber, 2018. Selection of storm events for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change, Coastal Engineering, 140, 316-330,

Lipiec, E., Ruggiero, P., Mills, A., Serafin, K., Bolte, J., Corcoran, P., Stevenson, J., and Zanocco, C., 2018. Mapping out Climate Change: Assessing How Coastal Communities Adapt Using Alternative Future Scenarios, Journal of Coastal Research, DOI: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-17-00115.1.1

May, C., C. Luce, J. Casola, M. Chang, J. Cuhaciyan, M. Dalton, S. Lowe, G. Morishima, P. Mote, A. Petersen, G. Roesch-McNally, and E. York, 2018: Northwest. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 1036–1100. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH24

Mills, A.K., Bolte, J.P., Ruggiero, P., Serafin, K.A., Lipiec, E., Corcoran, P., Stevenson, J., Zanocco, C. and Lach, D., 2018. Exploring the Impacts of Climate and Management on Coastal Community Resilience: Simulating alternative future scenarios, Environmental Modeling and Software, 109, 80-92.

Mote, P.W., S. Li, D. Lettenmaier, M. Xiao, and R. Engel, 2018. Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US. Nature npj Climate and Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0012-1.

Pytlak, E., C. Frans, K. Duffy, J. Johnson, B. Nijssen, O. Chegwidden, and D. Rupp. 2018.   Climate and Hydrology Datasets for RMJOC Long-Term Planning Studies: Second   Edition (RMJOC-II), Part I: Hydroclimate Projections and Analyses. Bonneville Power   Administration, United States Army Corps of Engineers, and United States Bureau of   Reclamation.  Report-Part-I.pdf


Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp. 2017. Evaluating climate model simulations of drought for the northwestern United States. International Journal of Climatology, in press.

Dalton, M.M, K.D. Dello, L. Hawkins, and P.W. Mote, 2017: The Third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR.

Frankson, R., K. Kunkel, S. Champion, L. Stevens, D. Easterling, K. Dello, M. Dalton, and D. Sharp. 2017. Oregon State Summary. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-OR, 3 pp.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Review of the Climate Science Special Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: (NRC committee chaired by P.W. Mote)

Vano, J. A., D. Behar, P. W. Mote, D. B. Ferguson, and R. Pandya, 2017: Partnerships drive science to action across the AGU community, Eos, 98, doi: 10.1029/ 2017EO088041.


Clifton, C., K. Day, K. Dello, G. Grant, J. Halofsky, D. Issak, C. Luce, M. Safeeq, B. Staab, J. Stevenson. 2016. Climate Change and Hydrology in the Blue Mountains. In Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Blue Mountains Region Eds: Halofsky, J., D. Peterson. General Technical Report PNW-GTR. USDA USFS. 22-33.

Joyce, L., M. Talbert, D. Sharp, J. Morisette, J. Stevenson. 2016. Historical and Projected Climate in the Northern Rockies. In Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Northern Rockies. Eds. Halofsky, J., D. Peterson, K. Dante-Wood. L. Hoang, J. Linda. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR, USDA USFS. 58-65

Marshall, A., D. Lach, J. Stevenson, J. Bolte, J. Koch. 2016. Collaborative modeling to assess climate impacts on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho. In Including Stakeholders in Environmental Modeling: Considerations, Methods and Applications. Eds. Gray S., M. Paolisso, R. Jordan. Springer Publishing.

Mote, P. W., D. E. Rupp, S. Li, D. J. Sharp, F. Otto, P. F. Uhe, M. Xiao, D. P. Lettenmaier, H. Cullen, M. R. Allen. 2016.
Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters (43), 10980-10988, doi: 10.1002/2016GL069965.

Mote, P. W., M. R. Allen, R. G. Jones, S. Li, R. Mera, D. E. Rupp, A. Salahuddin, D. Vickers. 2016. Superensemble regional climate modeling for the western US
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (97), 203-215, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1.

Rupp, D. E., S. Li., P. W. Mote, K. Shell, N. Massey, S. N. Sparrow, D. C. H. Wallom, M. R. Allen. 2016. Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: A modeling study of the western USA. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.

Rupp, D. E. 2016. An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1047, 32 p., doi: 10.3133/ofr20161047.

Rupp, D. E., J. T. Abatzoglou, P. W. Mote. 2016.
Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin
Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3418-7.

Rupp, D. E., S. Li., P. W. Mote, N. Massey, S. N. Sparrow, D. C. H. Wallom. 2016.
Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central US in 2012. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1.

Rupp, D. E., S. Li. 2016. Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.4963.

Stevenson, J., M. Crimmins, J. Whitehead, C. Fraisse, J. Brugger, 2016. Connecting Information with Practical Uses: Extension and the NOAA RISA Program. In Climate in Context, Eds. Parris, A., G. Garfin, K. Dow, R. Meyer, S. Close. Wiley and Sons. 75-97.


Mera, R., N. Massey, M. Allen, P. Mote, D. E. Rupp, P. C. Frumhoff. 2015.
Climate change, climate justice, and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley. Climatic Change (133), 427-438, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3.

Li, S., P. W. Mote, D. E. Rupp, D. Vickers, R. Mera, M. R. Allen. 2015.
Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home. Journal of Climate (28), 7470–7488, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1.

Vano, J. A., J. B. Kim, D. E. Rupp, P. W. Mote. 2015.
Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities
Geophysical Research Letters (42), 5516–5525, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063208.

Rupp, D. E., S. Li., N. Massey, S. N. Sparrow, P. W. Mote, M. R. Allen. 2015.
Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011. Geophysical Research Letters (42), 2392-2400, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062683.


Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp, P. W. Mote. 2014.
Questionable evidence of natural warming of the northwestern United States
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (111), E5605-E5606, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421311112.

Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp, P. W. Mote. 2014.
Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States
Journal of Climate (27), 2125-2142, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1.


Bumbaco, K.A., K.D. Dello, N.A. Bond. 2013. History of Pacific Northwest heat waves: synoptic pattern and trends. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 1618–1631.doi:

Dalton, M.M., P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover [Eds.]. 2013. Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Jaeger, W., A. Plantinga, H. Chang, K. Dello, G. Grant, D. Hulse, J. McDonnell, S. Lancaster, H. Moradkhani, A. Morzillo, P. Mote, A. Nolin, M. Santelmann, J. Wu. 2013. Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural-human systems, Water Resour. Res., 49, 4506–4517, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20249.

Rupp, D. E., J. T. Abatzoglou, K. C. Hegewisch, P. W. Mote. 2013.
Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (188), doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50843.

Rupp, D. E., P. W. Mote, N. Massey, F. E. L. Otto, M. R. Allen. 2013.
Human influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012, In Peterson, T. C., M. P. Hoerling, P. A. Stott, S. Herring, eds., Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (94), S2-S6.

Rupp, D. E., P. W. Mote, N. L. Bindoff, P. A. Stott, D. A. Robinson. 2013.
Detection and attribution of observed changes in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover. Journal of Climate (26), 6904-6914, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1.


Rupp, D. E., P. W. Mote, N. Massey, C. J. Rye, R. Jones, M. R. Allen. 2012.
Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable? In Peterson, T. C., P. A. Stott, S. Herring, eds., Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (93), 1041-1067, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00021.1.